3 of 10 signals confirmed
Some bottom signals confirmed, others still forming. This is the patient waiting phase — not a clear bottom yet, not a clear bull either.
Updated May 17, 08:09 AM UTC · Refreshes hourly
Fair value
Fear
$2.69T total market
+27.0% above 200W MA
-7.9% vs 4 weeks ago
+0.55% · flat
Every cycle bottom has touched the 200W MA (purple). Price above the 50W MA (teal) = bull trend. Below = bear.
Below 1.0 = bottom zone · Above 3.5 = overheated
Extreme fear (below 15) has marked every major cycle bottom. Extreme greed (above 75) signals tops.
Above 0 = dry powder building (capital fleeing to stable). Below 0 = capital deploying back into crypto. The turn from positive to negative is the buy signal.
Signs the cycle low is near or already in
Market not overheated. Below 2.0 = fair value or undervalued.
Classic bottom zone. Every major cycle bottom has seen MVRV dip under 1.0.
Market in fear. Sentiment at extremes often precedes reversals.
Maximum pessimism. Historically the strongest buy signal.
Capital consolidated in BTC. Altcoins not yet seeing rotation.
Every cycle bottom has seen BTC touch or approach the 200-week MA. Within 20% counts.
Dry powder building on sidelines. Rising stables = capital waiting to deploy.
Signs a fresh bull run has begun
ETH outperforming BTC signals broad market rotation. The first sign of a new altcoin cycle.
When dominance peaks and drops, capital rotates to alts — the hallmark of a new bull cycle.
Sideline cash being deployed into risk assets. Late-stage dry powder consumption = bull confirmed.
Disclaimer — These indicators are based on historical patterns from previous Bitcoin cycles. Past cycles do not guarantee future cycles will follow the same path. Markets mature, participation changes, and no two cycles are identical — signals that triggered cleanly in 2018 or 2022 may be muted, delayed, or absent in the next cycle. Not all indicators on this page will necessarily confirm before a bottom is in. This site is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research.