bottomisin.xyz
BTC cycle tracker
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ACCUMULATION ZONE

5 of 13 signals confirmed

Some bottom signals confirmed, others still forming. This is the patient waiting phase — not a clear bottom yet, not a clear bull either.

Bottom signals3/9
New cycle signals2/4

Updated Jul 4, 10:38 PM UTC · Refreshes hourly

Historical charts

BTC cycle overlay

X-axis — days since cycle top (0 = the all-time high)Y-axis — price as % of that cycle's peakGreen zone — day range when all 3 previous cycles bottomed (day 363–410 from the top)

Current cycle top: Aug 2025 at $123,354.3 — day 329 today

Bitcoin price — weekly

All
200W MA (purple) — Every cycle bottom has touched this line. It's the long-term floor.50W MA (teal) — Price above = bull trend. Below = bear trend.Arrows — Each arrow marks where price touched or dropped below the 200W MA — the historical buy zones.

MVRV ratio

All
Below 1.0 — Bottom zone. Every major cycle bottom has dipped under here.1.0 – 3.5 — Fair value. Normal accumulation range.Above 3.5 — Overheated. Historical top territory.
1.0 bottom zone 3.5 overheated

Puell Multiple

All
Below 0.5 — Miners deeply stressed — selling BTC to cover costs. Every major cycle bottom has seen the Puell dip below 0.5.Above 4 — Miners highly profitable — historically marks cycle tops.How it works — Daily miner revenue divided by its 365-day moving average. Normalises for halvings and price cycles.
0.5 bottom zone confirmed bottoms

Fear & Greed index

All
Below 15 — Extreme fear. Has marked every major cycle bottom.Below 30 — Fear zone. Accumulation territory.Above 75 — Extreme greed. Top signal — exercise caution.
75 extreme greed 30 fear 15 extreme fear

Stablecoin supply — 30d change %

All
Above 0% — Capital moving to sidelines. Dry powder building.Below 0% — Capital deploying back into crypto.Flip from + to − — The buy signal. Watch for this turn.
positive = sidelines filling negative = capital deploying

BTC dominance

All
Above 58% — Capital hiding in BTC. Bear market, alts underperforming.50–58% — Neutral range. Market transition zone.Below 50% — Capital rotating into alts — classic new bull cycle signal.
58% bear zone 50% midpoint

ETH / BTC ratio

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Rising — ETH outperforming BTC — capital rotating into alts, new bull cycle starting.Falling — BTC dominance rising — risk-off, capital retreating to Bitcoin.Watch for — A sustained turn upward after a prolonged downtrend is one of the earliest new-cycle signals.

SOL / ETH ratio

All
Rising — SOL outperforming ETH — deep risk-on rotation, capital moving into high-beta alts.Falling — Retreat to relative safety. BTC and ETH holding better than smaller caps.Watch for — SOL/ETH turning up usually lags the ETH/BTC reversal by a few weeks — it's the second leg of altcoin season.
cycle troughs

DXY — US Dollar Index

All
Inverse correlation — DXY up = BTC down. DXY down = BTC up. The Sep 2022 DXY peak at 114 came 8 weeks before BTC's $15.7k bottom.Pink arrows — Major DXY peaks — each one was followed by a BTC relief rally or a new bull market.Watch for — DXY crossing below its 13W MA (dashed line) is the clearest signal the dollar is weakening and BTC conditions are improving.
BTC bear market 13W MA DXY peak → BTC bottom
Signal checklist

Bottom forming

Signs the cycle low is near or already in

3/9
MVRV ratio below 2.01.18

Market not overheated. Below 2.0 = fair value or undervalued.

MVRV ratio below 1.01.18

Classic bottom zone. Every major cycle bottom has seen MVRV dip under 1.0.

Fear & Greed below 3022

Market in fear. Sentiment at extremes often precedes reversals.

Fear & Greed below 15 (Extreme Fear)22

Maximum pessimism. Historically the strongest buy signal.

BTC dominance above 58%55.7%

Capital consolidated in BTC. Altcoins not yet seeing rotation.

BTC tested 200-week MA0.3% above 200W MA

Every cycle bottom has seen BTC touch or approach the 200-week MA. Within 20% counts.

Puell Multiple below 0.50.724

Miners are deeply underwater — selling BTC to cover costs. This level of miner stress has coincided with every major cycle bottom.

DXY (dollar) declining120.9 (+0.41% 13w)

A weakening dollar is historically bullish for BTC. Every major cycle bottom has coincided with DXY peaking and rolling over.

Stablecoin supply growing-1.83% (30d)

Dry powder building on sidelines. Rising stables = capital waiting to deploy.

New cycle starting

Signs a fresh bull run has begun

2/4
ETH/BTC ratio reversing up0.0283 vs 0.0264 (4w ago)

ETH outperforming BTC signals broad market rotation. The first sign of a new altcoin cycle.

SOL/ETH ratio reversing up0.0458 vs 0.0390 (4w ago)

SOL outperforming ETH signals deep risk-on rotation — capital chasing higher-beta assets. Historically follows the ETH/BTC reversal by a few weeks.

BTC dominance below 55% and falling55.7%

When dominance peaks and drops, capital rotates to alts — the hallmark of a new bull cycle.

Stablecoin supply shrinking-1.83% (30d)

Sideline cash being deployed into risk assets. Late-stage dry powder consumption = bull confirmed.

Disclaimer — These indicators are based on historical patterns from previous Bitcoin cycles. Past cycles do not guarantee future cycles will follow the same path. Markets mature, participation changes, and no two cycles are identical — signals that triggered cleanly in 2018 or 2022 may be muted, delayed, or absent in the next cycle. Not all indicators on this page will necessarily confirm before a bottom is in. This site is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Binance · CoinMetrics · alternative.me · CoinGecko · DeFiLlamaNot financial advice.